Markets as I see them February 8, 2011
Howdy
again, seems like some things take forever to play out. The DOW is up over 12,000(actually 12,200) and
crude is slowly inching downward, after a run up to $92.00 currently at $87.50/barrel. Corn and Beans are both still heading
higher, after filling gaps they left from the drop in September-October of
2008. The first of these gaps was
11.80-11.92 in soybeans and 5.20-5.45 in Dec corn.
SOYBEANS: Currently looking for a push into the $15.00 range. I see no
gaps left unfilled from the June 2008 peak down to the December 2008 bottom. The break-away gap at 11.50 in October 2010
can be used as a measuring gap targeting $15.00. The area between the last two closes in this area (14.90 &
15.20) should catch the top of this current rally. The Chinese buying has been
high and continual. Weather around the
globe has been less than ideal, but South American bean harvests look huge. I
see this market sliding lower especially during peak harvest of South American
beans - soon.
CORN: Ok now looking for a nearby top in
the $6.90 7.15 area(March contract) and an excellent shot at filling the Dec
2011 weekly chart gap at $6.05-6.18 soon as we are above $6.00 Dec 2011
contract) now. There is a possibility
of topping in the $6.25 6.35 area as retracement percentages and last closes
in this area match up. I would be a
seller of any unpriced 2010 and 2011 crops in this area NOW. I believe a return back under 3.25 is very
possible if world crops turn better or the world economy tanks in
2011-2012. There may be some upward
movement during an acreage battle later this spring but I believe it will be at
a somewhat lower level than the tops mentioned above. There is an outside chance of another wave higher but if the
dollar strengthens(this is happening now) and more world unrest unfolds I
believe fund money will leave this market taking the long profits.
Crude Oil: Crude has
fallen from the $92.80 area to around $87.00 and should be headed lower into
the summer($60-70.00 area) and then collapsing below $40 into 2012.
DOW: The current upside correction push should
end very soon(under 12,600) leading into another downward thrust into the 8,000
area. Still looking for a deeper drop
by 2012, especially if you believe we are in a Grand Super Cycle degree wave
down.
Still looking for overall weak markets (Grains, DOW, Crude
in fact all commodities and stocks) from 2012 2016 if Global Deflation
continues. We have had very minor
setbacks during this recent run up of commodities and especially stocks. The Elliott wave count still forecasts a
deeper drop in the coming months. Along
the way there will certainly be some up moves but the overall sentiment should
be downward.
I hope we dont see that bad of an outcome but with all of
the easing of financial restrictions during the Bush administration
restrictions put into place during the 1930s- along with the easy credit,
money expanding philosophy pushed by the big banks, we can only head to a lower
reality. If we could face it sooner
than later we might still have a chance to soften the blow- its just not
looking good now since the government is pushing more money into the economy
and the banking industry is receiving ever larger profits and handing out outrageous
bonuses. All the while we are still
seeing record bank closures by the Feds 14 banks so far in 2011(its only early
February) compared to a total of 157 bank failures in 2010.
Gerry
**Disclaimer: The content on these pages are the opinions of Gerald Slezak and are not intended to be a recommendation to buy or sell commodities or stocks in real life or on the CBOT, CME, KCBOT, DOW, S&P etc. Any correlation between the predictions and/or recommendations and actual market moves is purely coincidental and are not guaranteed to happen more than any other advisory service. Some or all of the information and recommendations may have been gathered through real life situations, here-say, SWAG computations, and Bohemian legends. Please use common sense in all farm marketing transactions. We make no guarantee of content and will not be held responsible if you make money or loose money of your own free will.