Markets as I see them – October 25, 2009 Updated October 31

OK, so the “BIG” freeze didn’t occur, but we had frost September 18 and then again September 28 and then a killing frost October 10, 2009 (25 degrees). Most of our crops were mature but a substantial part of western Kansas had damage on green immature soybeans. Also by the USDA progress reports up to 30 percent of the corn in ND, MI, and MN were not mature and to a lesser extent IA and IL when the first killing freeze occurred. Also with the cool and wet conditions the harvest progress is lagging 2-4 weeks behind. No wonder we recently saw Dec corn above $4.00. But why not $5.00 – well we probably won’t know the extent of possible damage till the later corn is harvested – possibly not until the end of November. Based on the late and wet harvest here’s my take

SOYBEANS: Looking for a top in beans in the 12.00 – 12.50 area in early November and possibly 17.20 – 17.40 area nearby contract before the end of the year. Really depends on the stock market Topping @ 10,500(DJIA) and the Chinese buying on how fast and far .

CORN: Ok Corn finally made some advance as opposed to the beans. Still looking for a top in the 5.58 area in November-December. Should have a little set back the last week of October before reaching $4.50 in early November. The final drive up could take place with further wet harvest weather or light test weight and lower yielding corn. $5.50 will fill a daily and weekly chart gap and be slightly more than a 50% retracement of the July – December 08 drop. Monday November 2, 2009 looks like a good buy area if we get down to around 3.56(Dec 09 contract) which would make it a $2.00 rise to 5.50 in 2 more legs up with a setback 4^th wave in between.

Food for thought: Some other market watcher says that the years ending in “9” are highs a very high percentage of the time. Well this is 2009 and I see no reason not to believe we will set a high in here for some time (multiple years sorry to say) These highs for corn may not be as high as 2008 but could be for some time to come. Buying some cheap calls here and riding it up getting ready for a selling opportunity with cash and futures/options at that point looks promising.

Crude Oil: Still on track to have Crude make a high in the $84 - $91 area sometime in the next 60 days. Possibly looking for crude to get below $30 a year from now! That would kill the ethanol market and corn as well – which is all possible and likely in my estimation.

Gerry

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**Disclaimer: The content on these pages are the opinions of Gerald Slezak and are not intended to be a recommendation to buy or sell commodities in real life or on the CBOT, CME, KCBOT, etc. Any correlation between the predictions and/or recommendations and actual market moves is purely coincidental and are not guaranteed to happen more than any other advisory service. Some or all of the information and recommendations may have been gathered through real life situations, here-say, SWAG computations, and Bohemian legends. Please use common sense in all farm marketing transactions. We make no guarantee of content and will not be held responsible if you make money or loose money of your own free will.